Poll of Tory voters puts Rishi Sunak clear

Almost half of Conservative voters believe Rishi Sunak would make a good prime minister, according to a poll that puts Penny Mordaunt behind both Liz Truss and the former chancellor.

A survey of more than 4,400 people found that, of those who had heard of each candidate, 48 per cent who backed the Tories in 2019 considered Mr Sunak would be a good prime minister, compared to 39 per cent who said the same of Ms Truss and 33 per cent who backed Ms Mordaunt.

The JL Partners poll, which also delved into the characteristics voters are seeking from the next prime minister, found that 19 per cent of Conservative supporters and 24 per cent of voters overall most wanted a leader who is “truthful”.

The survey, carried out last week, highlights the scale of the challenge facing Boris Johnson’s successor, putting Labour 11 points ahead of the Conservatives, on 42 points to the Tories’ 31.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners and a former Downing Street pollster, said it showed the public were “withholding their judgment” on Ms Mordaunt, who has become a surprise frontrunner among MPs, adding: “Among those who have heard of Mordaunt, the overwhelming view is one of neutrality.”

An MRP model, which maps survey results onto every seat in the country, found that, among all voters, Mr Sunak had the highest net approval score in 76 per cent of the seats won by the Tories in 2019, compared to 19 per cent in which Tom Tugendhat came out on top and five per cent in which Ms Mourdant had the best score.

Neither Ms Truss nor Kemi Badenoch came out on top in seats currently held by the Conservatives.

One-fifth of voters who backed the Conservatives in 2019 said Mr Sunak would make a bad prime minister – slightly more than Ms Truss’s 18 per cent.

Of the country at large, almost one in three (32 per cent) of voters who had heard of Mr Sunak said he would make a good prime minister, while 22 per cent, 21 per cent and 20 per cent said the same of Ms Truss, Ms Mordaunt and Mr Tugendhat respectively.

A similar proportion – 32 per cent – said Mr Sunak would make a bad prime minister, compared to 35 per cent, 29 per cent and 25 per cent who said the same of Ms Truss, Mrs Badenoch and Ms Mordaunt respectively.

The results appear to contrast with a YouGov survey of Conservative members that identified Ms Mordaunt, the international trade minister, as the clear favourite to become Tory leader.

Similarly, the MP for Portsmouth North has held onto second place in the contest following two rounds of voting by MPs – leaving more prominent rivals such as Ms Truss in her wake.

The survey of 2019 Conservative voters, carried out between July 12 and July 14, found that the top three attributes voters wanted to see in a new prime minister were someone who was truthful (50 per cent), competent (46 per cent) and “trusted to take the big decisions” (45 per cent).

The fourth most commonly selected characteristic was someone who is “realistic about what can be achieved”, selected by 40 per cent of voters.

The wish-lists of attributes selected by Conservative voters and those who supported other parties in 2019 was strikingly similar, with both groups prioritising the same characteristics.

Among all voters, the most popular policy priority was to “turn the economy around”, with addressing the NHS backlog and restoring trust and integrity in public life coming second and third respectively.

Cutting taxes was the fourth priority, selected by 38 per cent of voters overall and 40 per cent of Conservative voters. The poll also highlighted how Conservative voters were more likely to believe that rights for transgender people should remain as they are rather than being expanded, and that the UK should leave the European Court of Human Rights.

Ms Mordaunt has been accused of failing to stand up for women in the debate over trans rights – something she denies – and Ms Truss says she is prepared to quit the convention.

Some 29 per cent of 1,407 voters who had heard of Mr Tugendhat said he would make a good prime minister, compared to 21 per cent of the 1,229 voters who had heard of Mrs Badenoch.

A spokesperson from Mr Tugendhat’s campaign said: “It is clear that there are now only two candidates who can beat Labour at the next election. Tom has only just started introducing himself to the country. Three days ago, he was basically unknown. People see him and they like him. Last night made it clear that the only way for him is up.”

JL Partners said: “Tom Tugendhat topped the table in 70 of the current Conservative-held constituencies, and was in the top three in almost all others, significantly ahead of Truss and Badenoch.”

On Saturday, Mr Sunak's bid was endorsed by Ben Houchen, the Tory Mayor of Tees Valley.

James Johnson: Sunak is popular with the all-important 2019 Conservative voter

The Conservatives have a narrow path to victory in two years time.

Although weakened by the last few months, much of the public’s fury was directed at Boris Johnson rather than the wider party. Questions remain on the party’s basic competence, the extent of its unity, and its intentions. But with public support for Sir Keir Starmer shaky, there is a path for their future leader to follow. Our poll seeks to answer what that may be.

Westminster is abuzz with talk of tax cuts, trans issues and the ECHR. But the public have three very clear questions they will be expecting the next leader to answer. Can they turn around the economy? Can they address the NHS backlog? And can they restore trust in our politics?

No one is expecting these challenges to be completely solved. They have seen enough disappointment to know that will not happen. But they will want someone with the intention and the strength to deliver.

They will also expect focus. For the wider public and Conservative voters alike, these priorities come far ahead of standing up against cancel culture, business tax cuts, and taking a tough approach with the EU. The next leader should remember that the people who will determine if they are only in the job for two years have bigger fish to fry.

That is the “what”. The “who” is harder. Many of the public are not aware of those standing. To address this, we have filtered out those voters who have not heard of a candidate. This is a necessary step at this stage of the contest, but creates a stiffer test for those more well-known by the public.

Penny Mordaunt has had a strong showing in the MPs’ round and has excited party members. But the public are withholding their judgement for now. Among those who have heard of Ms Mordaunt, the overwhelming view is one of neutrality. Just 21 per cent say she would make a good prime minister, and 25 per cent say she would make a bad one. The public do not strongly dislike her; nor is she much liked. There may be “Pennymania” in Westminster. In the country, it is more of a shrug.

Kemi Badenoch sits in a similar position. Tom Tugendhat has forged more of a connection. He comes out as the top-rated candidate in more Conservative-held seats, 70 overall, than either Ms Mordaunt, Mrs Badenoch or Liz Truss.

That leaves the two better-known candidates in the race: Ms Truss and Rishi Sunak. Judging these two, we can be surer of the public reaction to them.

Ms Truss looks a high-risk bet. Only one in five name her as a good prime minister, but more than one third say she would be bad. Most worryingly for the Foreign Secretary, she does not top the table of candidates in one Conservative-held seat in the country.

Mr Sunak invites strong opinions. One third of voters think he would be good in the top job, one third do not.

But in an unpopular field where every other candidate is in net-negative territory, this score draw makes him the public’s favourite. He is particularly popular with the all-important 2019 Conservative voter, as the only candidate to have half approve of him.

Critically, Mr Sunak is the top-rated candidate in 76 per cent of the seats won by the Conservatives in 2019.

While the public chew over the economy, the NHS and public trust, Conservative MPs may have a much simpler question: who is the best candidate to hold their seat?  On this evidence, the answer is Mr Sunak.

James Johnson is a founding partner of JL Partners and former pollster at No 10 Downing Street