Register today for L&C 2024 - FIA's Law & Compliance Division Conference (https://lnkd.in/dZz3KY3u), taking place at the Gaylord National Resort from 24-26 April. Curated by legal and compliance experts, this year's program tackles important developments in markets, law and technology. Session discussions will include the latest on artificial intelligence; off-channel communications; new products, new entrants and new models; and effective controls for electronic and automated trading. The program will also feature a vendor showcase on communications surveillance and all the latest developments on enforcement, compliance best practices and regulatory issues. Learn more and register by 18 March for the best rates! #FIALC #FIAEvent

Brands are usually so protective of their visual assets. But Coca-Cola goes the other way in a new campaign that raises up unauthorized street paintings of its iconic logo. Read more: https://ow.ly/yBqS50R4pBx

"Cocoa always comes out". Till it doesn't. The parabolic price rise of cocoa futures at the ICE exchanges, and its impact on the #cocoa & chocolate industry, is getting more attention in the media. There aren't many insiders willing to speak though, and if you haven't been active in this industry for years through different market cycles, it is difficult to understand how the industry works, and imagine how its participants behave. Think the unthinkable. In the 15+ years that I traded cocoa I regularly held on to expressions describing its unique character, to make it through the regular insanity. "Cocoa is a bitch" reflects its unpredictability and making you suffer. It helps knowing you are not alone suffering. My guess is it's used a lot nowadays. "Cocoa always comes out" reflects physical cocoa, despite disruptions like civil war, social unrest, port strikes, energy shortages, broken infrastructure, and export bans, eventually coming out of the bush, and the semi finished products out of factories, for export. Ivory Coast and Ghana heavily depend on tax income from cocoa and are incentivized to get cocoa out, and tax money in. This time it is different. The most dangerous sentence in financial #markets, as rarely it is, but it applies to cocoa now. The shortage of fresh beans, and extreme price moves, cause high counterparty risk. It is likely that those who have sold beans months ago, default on their contractual obligations, either because the beans are not there (Ivory Coast and Ghana governments) or because sellers want to renegotiate prices or resell beans to other buyers. Sellers also face counterparty risk, as they don't know whether their buyers will have the #money to pay for the beans. And the ICE exchange has been hiking margins on their futures to reduce credit risk they face from (short) hedgers. Banks and others may be financing beans which aren't there (prepayment is a regular way of working in cocoa). The toughest months in my cocoa #trading career were from November 2010 till the spring of 2011, called "The Gbagbo" crisis, where Ivory Coast erupted into civil war after disputed presidential elections (always a burning tires event), right at the start of the main crop. No one knew how long the war would last, also because the EU had implemented an export ban to pressure Gbagbo to concede. Consumers panicked and processing margins sharply increased to reflect the risk of an extended period of supply disruptions. But the industry knew the beans were there, only not when they would come out. This was also before Ivory Coast started marketing their crop forward in 2012, so the industry also knew that a lot of beans needed to be sold in a short period ex harvest. Today, the supply deficit may be half a million tons (10% of a normal crop) after two earlier deficit years, and Ivory Coast has already sold its current crop forward, at prices 70% below today's price. Both physical and hedge flows are absent.

Scila Pte Ltd is moving to its new location in One Raffles Place Tower 2 in May 2024 confirming the expansion of our Asian business. Scila has added Crawford Lin as our regional support for Asia. This confirms the solid growth potential for Multi Asset Trade Surveillance and Risk Management solutions in the region and our commitment to the APAC region.