The first offset project was launched in Guatemala in 1988, when an energy company paid a nonprofit organization to protect forests. Just like that, the emissions generated by a new coal power plant being built in the US could be written off. As the science of climate change firmed up over the years ahead, the voluntary decision to purchase offsets became a hedge by companies against expected government regulations aimed at reducing emissions.
Even if most offset projects began with good intentions, the adjustments they allowed to corporate climate ledgers stood on shaky carbon math. “The real challenge with carbon offsets since the very beginning is that they are trying to do different things,” said Mark Trexler, a climate-risk consultant who was involved in that initial Guatemalan offset project. “And to some extent, those things are potentially contradictory.”
The contradiction is that an offset is appealing precisely because it claims to curb emissions at the lowest cost possible. “That tension between low cost and mitigating climate change has been a constant,” said Trexler. “Unfortunately, the cost containment has, in effect, won out.”
Put another way, companies buying offsets often end up focusing on the cost rather than effectiveness or credibility. The slow and steady increase in demand for the cheapest solutions led to an increase in the types of projects aiming to generate offsets. Those included cleaner cooking stoves and trapped biogas from farm waste as well as renewable projects. The basis of all these projects was to claim that funding the “good” activity theoretically made it possible to avoid another “bad” activity that causes emissions.
For any of these offsets to be credible, however, the additional revenue stream must be central to the decision to build the “good” project. The standard for credibility is simple: Without offsets credits, would a project be financially viable on its own? This “additionality” requirement is a key pillar of offset projects. But it’s also easy to game because of the counterfactual behind the calculations. How can anyone be sure that the construction of a solar farm prevented the advent of a coal project?
Understanding the creative math involved takes a measure of brain-twisting assumptions. Project developers behind a renewable plant can claim offsets based on the entirety of the emissions supposedly avoided — even though offsets do not fund the entire cost and typically only increase profitability. That’s what makes these offsets so cheap. The financial contribution to the project from the offsets is disproportionate to the carbon benefit attributed to them.
This is how all renewable-energy projects generate offsets, according to Infras’ Fuessler, who was previously on a UN panel that approved such methodologies. “The regulatory bodies are not really incentivized to make sure that the rules are very tight,” said Fuessler. Many buyers “have an interest to be able to purchase low-priced credits.”
How Renewable-Energy Offsets Compare
Belgium
90M tons CO₂
#42
highest-
emitting
country
Colombia
86
Chile
84
Venezuela
76
Romania
74
Oman
73
72
Renewable-energy offsets
Turkmenistan
72
Morocco
65
Austria
62
Belarus
59
Libya
59
Greece
56
#53
90M tons CO₂
Belgium
#42
highest-
emitting
country
86
Colombia
84
Chile
76
Venezuela
74
Romania
73
Oman
72
Renewable-energy offsets
72
Turkmenistan
65
Morocco
62
Austria
59
Belarus
59
Libya
56
Greece
#53
90M tons CO₂
Belgium
#42
highest-
emitting
country
86
Colombia
84
Chile
76
Venezuela
74
Romania
73
Oman
72
Renewable-energy offsets
72
Turkmenistan
65
Morocco
62
Austria
59
Belarus
59
Libya
56
Greece
#53
Bloomberg Green contacted carbon market experts who examined a handful of the biggest sources of renewable-energy offsets tied to last year’s biggest buyers and found that none of the projects were credible. Many of these projects, especially in China, would clearly have been built because the government wanted them built; the money from offsets did not make them viable.
One example: the Zhangjiakou Chabei Wind Farm Project in China’s Hebei province. General Electric Co. bought more than 800,000 credits from the project in 2021, or about half of the company’s annual total. Experts say Chinese state subsidies and other support means that offset revenue likely didn’t factor heavily into a decision to build in 2010.
The project, which started generating credits in May 2011, is operating “in a regulated market context, where costs, tariffs, and the background financial structures of market actors are heavily influenced by state policy and decision-making,” said Danny Cullenward, policy director at nonprofit research group CarbonPlan. This means the financials of a project like this are “hard to extricate from broader state policy considerations.”
The top renewable offsets suppliers for Germany-based E.ON SE and Italy-based Eni came from state-backed hydropower projects in China’s Jiangxi and Sichuan provinces, respectively. These projects, which started generating credits in 2013, are “obvious examples of activities the state chooses to pursue or not,” said Cullenward, “not abstract market forces that can be nudged with a marginal incentive.”
Selling Bogus Offsets
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Non-renewable-energy projects
Teles Pires
Brazil
2.3M
Santa Vitria do Palmar and Chui
Brazil
2.2
Baspa
India
Zhangjiakou
Chabei
2.2
Sichuan
China
China
820K
552K
Vishnuprayag
India
Jiangxi
Xiajiang
2.0
China
799K
Sogamoso
Colombia
1.7
Kinnaur
India
1.7
Uttarakhand
India
1.3
Los Cocos II
Dominican Republic
457K
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Non-renewable-energy projects
Teles Pires
Santa Vitria do
Palmar and Chui
Baspa
Vishnuprayag
Sogamoso
Kinnaur
Uttar-
akhand
Brazil
India
India
Colombia
India
India
1.3
Brazil
2.2
1.7
2.3M
2.2
2.0
1.7
Zhangjiakou
Chabei
Jiangxi
Xiajiang
Sichuan
Los Cocos II
China
Dominican Rep.
China
820K
China
799K
552K
457K
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Non-renewable-energy projects
Teles Pires
Baspa
Vishnuprayag
Sogamoso
Santa Vitria do
Palmar and Chui
Brazil
India
India
Colombia
2.3M
Brazil
2.2
2.2
1.7
2.0
Zhangjiakou
Chabei
Sichuan
Jiangxi
Xiajiang
Los Cocos II
China
Dominican Rep.
China
820K
China
799K
552K
457K
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Non-renewable-energy projects
Teles Pires
Baspa
Vishnuprayag
Santa Vitria do
Palmar and Chui
Brazil
India
India
2.3M
Brazil
2.2
2.2
2.0
Zhangjiakou
Chabei
Sichuan
Jiangxi
Xiajiang
Los Cocos II
China
Dominican
Republic
China
820K
China
552K
457K
799K