OPEC+ Gambles That U.S. Shale’s Golden Age Is Over

  • Oil traders see a slowdown in American crude output growth
  • Rising production in Norway, Brazil will offset U.S. weakness
Photographer: Bronte Wittpenn/Bloomberg
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For years, OPEC ignored the rise of the U.S. shale industry and came to regret its mistake. Now, the group is making another bold gamble on America’s oil revolution: that its golden age is over.

When the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets this week, ministers will discuss whether to extend their current output target, rather than reduce it, according to people familiar with the internal debate. The reason? They believe relentless U.S. oil production growth will slow rapidly next year.