A Canadian political scientist has urged his country's government to prepare for the possibility of the United States becoming a right-wing dictatorship before 2030.
In an op-ed published in The Globe and Mail on Friday, Thomas Homer-Dixon, an executive director of the Cascade Institute at Royal Roads University in British Columbia, warned his country had to prepare for the worst-case scenario.
"By 2025, American democracy could collapse, causing extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence," Homer-Dixon wrote.
"By 2030, if not sooner, the country could be governed by a right-wing dictatorship. We mustn't dismiss these possibilities just because they seem ludicrous or too horrible to imagine.
"In 2014, the suggestion that Donald Trump would become president would also have struck nearly everyone as absurd. But today we live in a world where the absurd regularly becomes real and the horrible commonplace."
The scholar added: "The [U.S.] is becoming increasingly ungovernable, and some experts believe it could descend into civil war."
Last month, three retired U.S. Army generals warned of the possibility of civil war if the 2024 presidential election results are not accepted by sections of the military.
In November, more than 150 U.S. academics wrote a public letter in support of the Freedom to Vote Act, which deals with voter registration and access and has not yet been passed. Those scholars warned that "Defenders of democracy in America still have a slim window of opportunity to act. But time is ticking away, and midnight is approaching."
In the op-ed, Homer-Dixon detailed his reasons for what he called the "unfolding crisis" in the U.S., writing that there had been multiple "warning signals" and reasons behind a changing political landscape.
Among them, he cited "stagnating middle-class incomes, chronic economic insecurity, and rising inequality," and broadcaster such as the late Rush Limbaugh who he said had "hammered away" at the "moral authority of U.S. political institutions."
He also highlighted "right-wing ideologues" stoking fears of white "replacement," the unwillingness of the wealthy and powerful "to pay the taxes, invest in the public services, or create the avenues for vertical mobility."
The op-ed referred to ex-President Trump, his administration and "Trumpism" 28 times.
At one point, Homer-Dixon wrote that, "If Mr. Trump is re-elected, even under the more-optimistic scenarios the economic and political risks to our country will be innumerable."
Newsweek has contacted Trump's representative's for comment.
Discussing the "Big Lie"—Trump's false claim the 2020 presidential election was stolen—Homer-Dixon said if Trump is reelected in 2024, the GOP leader will "have only two objectives: vindication and vengeance."
"A terrible storm is coming from the south, and Canada is woefully unprepared," the political scientist wrote.
"Over the past year we've turned our attention inward, distracted by the challenges of COVID-19, reconciliation, and the accelerating effects of climate change. But now we must focus on the urgent problem of what to do about the likely unravelling of democracy in the United States."
"We need to start by fully recognizing the magnitude of the danger."
Homer-Dixon advised the Canadian government to establish a standing, non-partisan Parliamentary committee to "receive briefings on the state of democracy in the U.S. and make recommendations."
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Darragh Roche is a U.S. News Reporter based in Limerick, Ireland. His focus is reporting on U.S. politics. He has ... Read more
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