I miss the days of arguing over the merits of bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Whether it is scalable or not? Whether it serves a valid function or not? Whether it can be a medium of exchange or just a store of value? Whether anonymity can remain a feature or whether government intervention and custodial activities will change all that.
Right now, virtually every conversation around the next price swing in Bitcoin devolves into a debate about whether or when a Bitcoin ETF will get launched.
There is something so absurd. That this ?revolutionary" "world-changing'"thing needs to sucker a bunch of people who won't ever use it for the purposes it was designed to rise, just seems bizarre, at best.
A bitcoin ETF is basically the antithesis of what bitcoin is supposed to be.
It is not a medium of exchange.
It is not at all off the grid, it is completely tracked and will rely on proof of ownership, at the ETF level to be successful.
It is only relying on the fact that, hopefully, there are enough people with equity accounts who will dabble in the ETF, who will allocate some portion of their wealth to Bitcoin via the ETF that we will get another surge in price.
As far as a product goes, I'm okay with launching a bitcoin ETF. The SEC better make sure there is disclosure, and investors better demand protection in terms of custodial responsibilities and other aspects of an ETF that we take for granted in securities based ETFs (including those linked to futures with a long history). So let's go ahead and get this over with.
I suspect, that the launch of a bitcoin ETF will be disappointing from a price standpoint because:
- So many crypto bulls are holding onto their position in anticipation of an ETF that there may be a lot of selling pressure once the rumor becomes the news
- I am not convinced that there are many people left who want much crypto who haven't already figured out a way to buy crytpo
In any case, maybe once we launch an ETF, Bitcoin and crypto can get back to justifying their worth based on their merits, rather than the greater fool theory.
