One question that determines the index is whether consumers expect their own income to rise, fall or remain level over the next six months.
As can be seen from the chart, from 1978, when the Conference Board began asking the question each month, through 2007, there was never a month when more people were pessimistic than optimistic. But starting in mid-2008, that reversed.
In the January survey, there was a slight plurality of optimists, after two months when the pessimists were more numerous.
One eye-catching fact, at least for me, is that during the 30 years before 2008, there were only 11 months when fewer than 17 percent of the people thought their income would rise. Since the end of 2008, there have only been three months when as many as 17 percent of the people expected an increase. And only one of those was in 2013. In January of this year, the figures were 15.8 percent optimistic and 13.6 percent pessimistic. The rest expected their income to be about the same.
When the results of that question turn around, consistently, it will be a sign that Americans really believe there is an economic recovery.