Low Volatility and the Risks of Crowded Trades
Financial market insurance is not like hurricane insurance.
Amid an improbable level of calm in markets, it’s worth remembering what Victor Haghani, a partner at Long-Term Capital Management, said in early 1999 about the fund’s implosion, especially given that quiet markets are compelling trading strategies that capitalize on low levels of volatility.
While Haghani’s statements were focused on the manner in which LTCM-specific trades were seemingly attacked by the market, they remain highly relevant today because the notion that financial market insurance is not like hurricane insurance is broadly applicable. When trades are especially crowded, their unwinding can amplify market moves as investors seek to de-risk in unison. Stable markets not only invite trades that bet on the continuation of stability, they almost force investors to pursue them in an investment climate so deprived of nominal return.