, Columnist
Put Forecasting in Its Final Resting Place
Precise predictions are no more likely to be right than random guesses, so please stop making them.
Long overdue.
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One of the things I failed to learn after writing a book was the simple fact that methodically demonstrating a thing with data and evidence doesn’t resolve that issue. I shouldn’t have been so naive, given that some people still are flat-earthers, or are anti-vaxxers, or Holocaust deniers, or claim that global warming is a Chinese hoax.
Which is why, despite all of the earlier discussions about the folly of forecasts, I find myself once again compelled to bring up this subject. Blame it on the time of year, when all of the forecasts for 2017 are being rolled out, while the old ones that were so-often wrong are forgotten instead of being reviewed.