Economy

Does an Overvalued Stock Market Mean a Crash Is Coming?

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There is one issue that has come up for quite some time, now that the bull market is seven years old and since the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 recently hit all-time highs. Is the stock market really overvalued? The simple answer is yes. A more rational answer is that the market valuations of 2016 are higher for a whole host of reasons, compared to past bull markets. Note that valuations actually went far higher in the past. Perhaps the real question is whether the market and all the other indicators might imply a market crash or a serious correction is coming up?

24/7 Wall St. wanted to give investors and economic watchers a quick-hit cheat sheet on where things are on the markets. This is a simplified and general view that is admittedly U.S.-centric. International markets matter handily here, but the reality is that there are some basic statistics to consider outside of China and other issues. The DJIA is still less than 300 points from its all-time high! And the S&P 500 is valued at 17.8 times forward earnings.

Again, the market is not cheap. It is also nowhere close to historic highs that might bring panic levels. It is quite possible that the market is just in a new no man’s land where valuations might not matter, within reason. Oil has moved within an acceptable trading range, and gold remains strong. All of this seems to be fueled by low U.S. rates and negative rates in Japan and Europe driving investors into a yield chase.

None of this means that a market crash is on the way. Still, anything can happen, and a market correction often surfaces due to a whole host of reasons. That would even include something not yet on the radar.

24/7 Wall St. wanted to address the valuation metrics behind stocks, what the market volatility trends look like, interest rates abroad and at home, oil and gold, and even sentiment. Also considered were issues around payrolls and unemployment, GDP growth expectations for gross domestic product (GDP) and investing guru views.

Dividend Bubble?: Utilities and defensive stocks have seen their dividend yields driven down as more traditional income investors have moved their way in the past five years. Vanguard recently closed its $31 billion dividend growth fund because it needed to preserve the integrity of the model. Translation: valuations have reached a point they feel may hurt performance ahead … someday, but maybe not today.

S&P Earnings Valuations: S&P said that the S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth, excluding energy, would be up 2.8% in the second quarter. Aggregate second-quarter S&P 500 earnings are estimated at $29.05 per share by S&P itself, which would be an earnings decline of “only” 2.5% from a year ago, versus the drop of 5.2% that was expected at the start of earnings season.

DJIA Stocks: 21 of the 30 DJIA stocks outyield the 30-year Treasury. The Dow is breaking multi-day down days, but it wasn’t really more than 300 points down from the all-time high.

Volatility: The VIX is down yet again at 12.26. Instead of being called the panic index, maybe this is the complacency index. This means it is now dirt cheap, in theory, to buy put options to protect against a crash or pullback.

Sentiment: Investors Intelligence bullish sentiment ticked down but remains almost 53%. Regardless of the sentiment of this week, just remember that the investing community has found numerous reasons to buy this stock market every single time that it has pulled back anywhere close to 10%.

Interest Rates Abroad: Negative interest prevails in Europe and Japan. Japan’s quantitative easing plan was big but disappointing to greedy markets that always want more. Bank of England did extra quantitative easing to get in front of a recession (but Governor Mark Carney says no recession will hit).

U.S. Treasury Yields: The 10-year yield is 1.49%, down from 1.55% on Wednesday. The 30-year yield is 2.25%, down from 2.30% on Wednesday. Unless the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to get on board for more hints of rate hikes, bond yields are likely to remain quite low, even if they begin to tick back up.

Oil Prices: With prices at $50, oil companies were more than willing to turn the pumps back on, and that seems to be pricing in operability even at lower prices. If oil goes to $35 that will again change. After breaching $40 to the downside, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was $41.70 on Thursday. Goldman Sachs recently gave a very realistic expected oil range.

Gold Trends: Gold remains above $1,350 ($1,363 on last look) and feels like it is “warning about something,” but what something is has not yet been seen. Maybe it is just that rates will be lower for longer (and then longer again). Goldman Sachs recently gave a very realistic range to expect.

Employment: Mixed ISM, PMI and jobs data all point to muted BLS payroll gains for Friday.

GDP Growth Past/Ahead: U.S. GDP was under the 2% magic line for first two quarters, creating lower 2016 U.S. GDP expectations.

Guru Views: While Bill Gross says he is no fan of stocks and bonds, Jeffrey Gundlach more or less said “sell everything.” Goldman Sachs downgraded equities to Underweight for the next three months (to the election) and stayed Neutral for 12 months out.

Elections: Americans are picking sides, and no one seems very thrilled about it. This is the most unusual presidential election of most of our lifetimes.

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