(Kitco News) - With gold prices holding over $1,200 an ounce, a majority of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey forecast the yellow metal to rise next week.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 21 responded this week. Ten see prices up, while six see prices down and five see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.
Last week, survey participants looked for prices to fall this week. At 11:30 a.m. EST, Comex gold for February delivery was up about $33 for the week.
Those who see higher prices said the short-term trend for gold is firmer and they expect the metal will build on those gains.
“I anticipate a breach of $1,240 and a run on the 200-day moving average at $1,271.60 before year’s end. That would put gold prices up on the year and poised to move much higher into 2015,” said Ralph Preston, principal, Heritage West Financial.
Those who see weaker prices said they don’t believe gold will be able to continue to withstand the crumbling price of crude oil, which fell 10% this week.
A few survey participants said they expect gold will stay in its current range, which is roughly between $1,215 and $1,240.
“I think gold will stay the same next week. I think it will spend the week digesting recent gains especially with no news likely from the ECB (European Central Bank). The risk is to the downside if the Fed changes its interest rate guidance and sends U.S. dollar higher,” said Colin Cieszynski, senior market strategist at CMC Markets.
Richard Baker, editor, Eureka Miner Report, said he expects gold to stay range-bound, but laid out some scenarios for gold to rise.
“Although gold is likely to remain near its present level in the short term, a rally higher is not out of the question before year’s end. The oil price is now more than five times more volatile than gold; volatilities greater than four times have preceded gold rallies over the past seven years. For example, if lower oil prices lead to geopolitical instability - e.g., collapsing Russian economy - gold could rally significantly. Without additional catalyst, gold could fall with commodities to a range between $950 to $1,170 per ounce in the first quarter of next year,” he said.
Allen Sykora contributed to the survey.
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