One Hundred Years of Bond History Means Bears Fated to Lose

If you’re convinced the plummet in yields of U.S. government bonds is an aberration, it may be because you haven’t been in the business long enough.

With the longest-dated Treasuries now yielding less than half the 6.8 percent average over the past five decades, it’s not hard to see why forecasters say they’re bound to rise as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates following the most aggressive stimulus measures in its 100-year history. Yet compared with levels that prevailed in the half-century before that, yields are in line with the norm.