A few corners of Wall Street are expecting big bonuses, but for most of the industry it is likely to be a disappointing year.
The year-end payouts could drop as much as 10 percent for the trading desks and hedge funds that not long ago were the centers of gravity on Wall Street, according to an annual survey by the compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates scheduled for release on Monday.
Still, there will be bright spots for certain Wall Street titans. Investment bankers and employees at private equity firms involved in mergers and acquisitions should see their bonuses rise 10 to 15 percent, the survey found. Asset managers, traditionally the more staid players in the financial industry, are also likely to land bigger paychecks.
The results confirm a divide on Wall Street that has been developing for some time as riskier financial activities — the ones where some of the fattest bonus checks are found — have faded away. Many had expected the gap to narrow at some point, but so far there are few signs of that occurring.
“The trading businesses, which have been the profit engines for the banks, have just not recovered,” said Alan Johnson, the managing director of Johnson Associates. “I thought they would rebound, and that has not happened.”
Mr. Johnson’s firm surveys the dozen or so largest banks and asset managers to come up with its data on trends in the industry. For investment and commercial banks as a whole, compensation is expected to be essentially flat.
Year-end bonuses have typically accounted for a large percentage of annual pay at many financial firms. For top executives and traders, the bonuses are often in the millions of dollars. Bankers generally do not find out what they will receive until early next year, once the firms have reported their fourth-quarter financial results.
The major banks reported third-quarter earnings recently that showed some pickup in trading revenue because of more volatility and activity in the markets at the end of the quarter. Since then, though, trading activity has again died down.
The most prominent name on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs, said in its recent third-quarter report that it had been putting aside less of its revenue for bonuses, even as it increased the size of its staff somewhat.
The changing fortunes on Wall Street are largely consistent with what regulators hoped to see in the wake of the financial crisis. New rules have discouraged banks from doing the sort of risky trading that used to result in big profits.
The regulations have instead encouraged banks to emphasize businesses that serve clients, such as wealth management and deal-making. These more staid business units do not require the banks to put any of their own money at risk.
Rising stock markets have also helped these businesses, as companies have looked to raise more money and make acquisitions.
“You are making money dealing with clients — it’s a more stable business,” Mr. Johnson said.
This shift could create problems for New York City, which relies on the taxes paid by Wall Street firms. The New York State comptroller said last month that bank profits fell 13 percent in the first half of 2014 from the period a year earlier, while the industry shed 2,600 jobs.
The segments of the financial industry that are experiencing more growth are not as heavily focused in New York. Asset management firms like Pimco and the Capital Group are based in California, while Fidelity and State Street heave headquarters in Boston. BlackRock, however, the largest player in exchange-traded funds, or E.T.F.s, is based in the city.
Financial firms have made different bets on whether the current trends are likely to continue. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have been hoping for bond trading to rebound in the not-too-distant future, creating big opportunities for the firms that stick with it.
Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, has cut back its bond-trading operations and put much more focus on the wealth-management business it expanded in the wake of the financial crisis by acquiring Smith Barney. That division, which is based outside New York City, has been performing well.
Mr. Johnson said that as financial industry fortunes shift, a belief is growing that Wall Street banks are no longer the places to go for big money, with asset management looking like a more lucrative business.
“For the first time in the last 30 years, the strong perception is that the pay leaders are not the big banks,” he said. “There are other parts of financial services where you can make more money. That is a fundamental change.”