Air traffic growth rates will outpace emission reductions, research shows

Efforts to reduce aviation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will be outweighed by the growth in air passengers, according to new research.

Plane ticket prices would need to rise by at least 1.4% a year for emission levels to fall, the research by the University of Southampton said.

But such a rise would buck the recent trend of lower air fares, said the authors of the research.

They said that even if proposed mitigation measures were agreed upon and put into place, air traffic growth rates were likely to outpace emission reductions, unless demand was substantially reduced.

The research’s co-author Professor John Preston said: “There is little doubt that increasing demand for air travel will continue for the foreseeable future.

“As a result, civil aviation is going to become an increasingly significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.”

The authors of the new study, which has been published in the journal Atmospheric Environment, have calculated that the ticket price increase necessary to drive down demand would value CO2 emissions at up to 100 times the amount of current valuations.

“This would translate to a yearly 1.4% increase on ticket prices, breaking the trend of increasing lower airfares,” said co-author and researcher Matt Grote.

He went on: “The price of domestic tickets has dropped by 1.3% a year between 1979 and 2012, and international fares have fallen by 0.5% a year between 1990 and 2012.”

The research suggested any move to suppress demand would be resisted by the airline industry and national governments. The researchers say a global regulator “with teeth” is urgently needed to enforce CO2 emission reduction measures.

“Some mitigation measures can be left to the aviation sector to resolve,” said Prof Ian William, the head of the Centre for Environmental Science at the University of Southampton.

He went on: “For example, the industry will continue to seek improvements to fuel efficiency as this will reduce costs. However, other essential measures, such as securing international agreements, setting action plans, regulations and carbon standards will require political leadership at a global level.”

The research suggested that the UN body the International Civil Aviation Organisation “lacks the legal authority to force compliance and therefore is heavily reliant on voluntary co-operation and piecemeal agreements”.