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As California Drought Enters 4th Year, Conservation Efforts and Worries Increase

Dead mandarin orange trees in Terra Bella, Calif.Credit...Monica Almeida/The New York Times

LOS ANGELES — The rainy season drove into California in December with wet and windy promise: soaking rain, snow, dark gray skies and a flash of hope that the drought that has scorched this region had run its course. And then came January — with record high temperatures and record low rainfall.

And now, as the end of the official rainy season approaches — this state gets 90 percent of its water from December through April, most of it in December and January — California is facing a punishing fourth year of drought. Temperatures in Southern California soared to record-high levels over the weekend, approaching 100 degrees in some places. Reservoirs are low. Landscapes are parched and blighted with fields of dead or dormant orange trees. And the Sierra Nevada snowpack, which is counted on to provide 30 percent of the state’s water supply as it melts through early summer, is at its second-lowest level on record.

The federal government has warned farmers for the second year in a row that it would not be providing any water from its Central Valley Project reservoir system. Any hope climatologists had that California would be rescued again by a wet El Niño winter weather system is fading with the arrival of spring.

State regulators voted Tuesday to impose a new round of water conservation rules, including sharp restrictions on landscape watering and orders to restaurants not to serve water to customers unless asked. Farmers said they anticipated leaving as much as one million acres fallow, nearly twice the area that went unplanted last year.

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A “bathtub ring” marking previous water levels around Pine Flat Lake in Fresno County.Credit...Monica Almeida/The New York Times

Santa Barbara is turning to a desalination plant it built in the early 1990s, but never used, to convert ocean water into drinking water, despite its expense and inefficiency. In communities like Oakland and Sacramento, water districts are reporting increased thefts by people tapping into their neighbor’s faucet or the fire hydrant on the corner.

In one sign of the kind of competition being set off by the scarcity, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, a regional agency that provides water for much of the area, authorized up to $71 million to buy water from farmers in the Sacramento Valley, who get it from a state agency. In some cases, the farmers were paid three times as much as in 2010, the last time this was done. With those kinds of prices, farmers say it makes more sense to take the money and leave more land unplanted.

“This is going to affect everyone in the state,” said Paul J. Wenger, the president of the California Farm Bureau Federation. “I can’t think of any part of the state where people aren’t going to be suffering from diminished water supplies.”

Michael Anderson, the state climatologist, said rainfall had been slightly better this season in Northern California than in Southern California, meaning that reservoir levels in some communities in the north were slightly above where they were last year. But he said the level remained far below the norm. And in critical places like the San Joaquin Valley in central California, in the heart of the state’s farming region, reservoir levels were down over the same period last year — often significantly.

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The Rev. Roman Hernandez handed out canned drinking water last week in East Porterville, where many of the residential wells have dried up.Credit...Monica Almeida/The New York Times

But the main reason for concern is the paucity of the snowpack. The March 3 measurement of the statewide snowpack was the water equivalent of five inches, or 19 percent of the average for that date. That is barely above the record low snowpack measurement from 1991, according to state officials.

“That’s pretty grim,” Mr. Anderson said. “We were hoping for the number of inches to be in the 30s.”

“It looks like we are on our way to the worst snowpack in history,” he said. “Unless we end up with some particularly good snows here in March, we are going to end up with a new lowest rank here.”

The sheets of December rain may have created additional problems, by leading people to take longer showers or to leave the tap running while brushing their teeth. That was compounded by a dry January, which prompted people to water normally dormant landscapes. The State Water Resources Control Board said that while there had been a 22 percent decline in year-to-year water consumption by urban customers in December, that figure was just 8.8 percent in January.

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Mark Lawson cleared away sludge while drilling for water in an olive grove in Orange Cove, Calif., last week. Many farmers in the Central Valley are searching for groundwater by drilling new wells.Credit...Monica Almeida/The New York Times

“Last year people thought we were in a regular three-year drought cycle and that it would rain next year,” said Felicia Marcus, the board’s chairwoman. Still, she said, it was a “9 percent reduction off last year, and we have to give credit where credit is due.”

Californians are growing increasingly convinced of the threat: 94 percent of voters in a Field Poll conducted Jan. 26 to Feb. 16 described the drought situation as serious, and 68 percent called it extremely serious. That was far more than the 51 percent who used the words “extremely serious” to describe the drought of 1976-77, one of the most severe in the state’s history. And one-third of voters said they supported water rationing.

This state has long been familiar with the give-and-take rhythms of the rain. But many scientists say the situation has been made worse by rising temperatures: The winter of 2014 was the hottest year on record for California. Last year, the average winter temperature across the state was a record 45.6 degrees, state officials said. This year’s winter average has been 47.4 degrees.

That is a large reason that the snowpack is so small. High temperatures mean more rain than snow, and rain tends to be absorbed by the ground before it reaches the reservoirs and to melt whatever snow is on the ground. Unseasonably warm weather results in increased consumption as people drink, shower and use water on landscapes more often.

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California’s Extreme Drought, Explained

The state is experiencing the worst drought in its history. Find out just how bad the situation is getting and what it means for you.

NAT OF THE EMPTY RESERVOIR NAT SCENES OF THE EMPTY RESERVOIR AUDIO - Jennifer Morgan, Tour Guide You’re looking at the largest off stream reservoir in the US.//It should be twice as full. NAT SCENES OF THE EMPTY RESERVOIR VO RIGHT NOW, 100 PERCENT OF CALIFORNIA FACES SEVERE DROUGHT. THIS IS THE SAN LUIS RESERVOIR, NEAR FRESNO. NAT SCENES OF THE EMPTY RESERVOIR Jennifer Morgan on camera “normally you can see the water line where it’s eroded on the hills, and usually we can fill up every year except when there’s a drought, and this is the third year of a major drought.” ON CAMERA VO HERE’S WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE WHEN IT’S FULL, CURRENTLY IT’S AT ONE-THIRD OF CAPACITY. (shot of changing to dirt) title BURST OF MUSIC AND CROSS-DISSOLVE TO THE AERIAL DIRT SHOT AND THE TITLE CARD: The Impact of California’s Drought, Explained Nat NASA plane VO SO FAR THIS YEAR, CALIFORNIA’S RAINFALL IS ONLY 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND THE STATE’S SNOWPACK - ANOTHER CRUCIAL WATER SOURCE - IS ONLY AT 18%. HERE’S THE STATE IN JANUARY 2013...(LONG PAUSE) .AND JANUARY THIS YEAR. “can’t brush your teeth...” THE RESULT? A HISTORIC DROUGHT WHOSE EFFECTS ARE ALREADY BEING FELT NATIONWIDE ON BOTH FOOD PRICES AND THE FIRE SEASON. 42:50:05 SOT- Bob Diedrich Almond Farmer, Fresno: A grower like myself, 4th generation tied up in dirt and making things grow, this is a heartbreaker. VO CALIFORNIA PRODUCES 90 PERCENT OF THE NATION’S TOMATOES, 95 PERCENT OF IT’S BROCCOLI AND 99 PERCENT OF IT’S ALMONDS. THAT’S WHAT BOB DIEDRICH FARMS HERE IN FRESNO COUNTY. For the first time, the state has stopped feeding water to farmers due to drought.. SOT: Bob Diedrich Almond Farmer, Fresno 11:31:55 Our water allocation in this area is zero. SOT: Bob Diedrich 11:34: Fresno County is the largest single producer of ag dollars in the nation.//nationwide you’re going to see food inflation espcially fresh fruits and vegetables, beef and nuts. nat food market if possible VO CALIFORNIA’S AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT COULD FALL BY 3.5 BILLION DOLLARS THIS YEAR. THAT MEANS RISING FOOD PRICES. COSTS ACROSS THE NATION ARE ALREADY UP WITH MORE INCREASES EXPECTED DOWN THE LINE. THE PRICE FOR AN AVOCADO MAY JUMP BY 28 PERCENT. Nat pop fire— VO THE LACK OF WATER ALSO MEANS FIRE. CALIFORNIA OFFICIALS ARE BRACING FOR A SUMMER THAT COULD BE THE WORST EVER. A MILLION ACRES COULD POTENTIALLY BURN - THAT’S BIGGER THAN NEW YORK’S LONG ISLAND - WITH COSTS THAT COULD SURPASS A BILLION DOLLARS. ALREADY, CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN HAS SET ASIDE SIX HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS AND PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS PLEDGED TO HELP. 4:38 SOT- President Obama: weather related disasters like droughts, wildfires, storms, floods are potentially going to be costlier and they’re going to be harsher. SOT-Brown:45 “I’m calling for a collaborative effort to restrain our water use.” VO NOW, HOW WILL CALIFORNIA ESCAPE ITS CYCLE OF DROUGHT? GOVERNOR BROWN HAS CALLED ON CALIFORNIANS TO LESSEN WATER USAGE BY 20%. SO FAR, HE’S ONLY SEEN A 5% REDUCTION. THERE ARE ALSO MUCH-NEEDED INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS. CONVERTING SEAWATER IS ONE - HIGHLY COSTLY - OPTION. THERE IS ALSO THE NEED TO EXPAND CALIFORNIA’S RESERVOIR SYSTEM - LIKE THE SAN LUIS - FOR MORE BACKUP DURING THE DRY SPELLS. “it’s going to make it tough, it’s really hard” BUT FOR NOW, DROUGHT MAY BE THE NEW NORM ACROSS CALIFORNIA. “instead of just using a dishwasher and wasting the water, may as well use it by hand and use it on the plants.” THE BIGGER CHALLENGE IS INFRASTRUCTURE. EXPERTS EXPECT THAT CALIFORNIA WILL NEED TO DOUBLE THE CAPACITY OF IT’S RESERVOIRS IN THE NEXT 30 YEARS THE SAN LUIS RESERVOIR IN CALIFORNIA, THE STATE HAS ONLY MANAGED TO GET TO A 5% REDUCTION. ACCORDING TO PROJECTIONS, OVER THE NEXT THREE DECADES CALIFORNIA WILL NEED TO DOUBLE THE CAPACITY OF RESERVOIRS THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS JUST TO REPLACE THE SNOWPACK THAT WILL BE LOST DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE. In five months since the drought emergency was declared, California residents have only cut their water consumption 5 percent compared with recent years Lost revenue in 2014 from farming and related businesses such as trucking and processing could reach $5 billion. HOW BAD WILL IT GET? The peak of the 2012 drought, an astounding 81 percent of the contiguous United States was under at least abnormally dry conditions, resulting in an estimated $30 billion in damages. This year may be worse. TO BATTLE THE BLAZE, EXPERTS WORRY IT WON’T BE ENOUGH. ALREADY FIREFIGHTERS HAVE RESPONDED TO OVER 1500 FIRES THIS YEAR, THE AVERAGE FIRE RESPONSE AT THIS TIME, 800. WITH A STATE THAT HAS FAILED TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE 2010, FIRE SEASONS HAVE BEEN GOING FROM BAD TO LOUSY. THE PROBLEM TODAY. RAINFALL THIS YEAR WAS ONLY 10-20 PERCENT OF NORMAL LEVELS. WHAT MAY BE WORSE, CALIFORNIA’S SNOWPACK, WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR A THIRD OF THE STATE’S WATER SUPPLY HAS DECLINED TO 18% OF WHERE IT SHOULD BE AS A RESULT RESERVOIRS LIKE THE SAN LUIS ARE DRYING OUT. <Nat video of reservoir> FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ITS 54 YEAR HISTORY THE STATE WATER PROJECT, HAS STOPPED FEEDING WATER TO FARMERS AND URBAN RESIDENTS DUE TO THE DROUGHT. <Nat video of reservoir> 42:50:05 SOT- Bob Diedrich Almond Farmer, Fresno: A grower like myself, 4th generation tied up in dirt and making things grow, this is a heartbreaker. BOB DIEDRICH IS A FARMER IN FRESNO COUNTY, SINCE THE WATER WAS CUT HIS COMMUNITY HAS BEEN HIT HARD. BECAUSE OF THE DROUGHT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3.5 BILLION DOLLARS, WHICH MEANS 20,0000 FARMERS COULD BE OUT OF THE JOB. SOT: Bob Diedrich 11:34: Fresno County is the largest single producer of ag dollars in the nation.//nationwide your going to see food inflation espcially fresh fruits and vegetables, beef and nuts. For the first time, the state has stopped feeding water to farmers due to drought. SOT-Bob SOT: Bob Diedrich Almond Farmer, Fresno 11:31:55 Our water allocation in this area is zero. Apparently these trees haven’t received any water this year. IN JANUARY, GOVERNOR BROWN DECLARED A DROUGHT STATE OF EMERGENCY. SOT-Brown:45 “I’m calling for a collaborative effort to restrain our water use.”// THE US DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE DECLARED 27 DISASTER AREAS. 4:38 SOT- President Obama: We have to be clear a change in climate, means that weather related disasters like droughts, wildfires, storms, floods are potentially going to be costlier and they’re going to be harsher. EXPECT A FIRE SEASON THIS YEAR THAT BURNS 60 TO 80 DAYS LONGER, BURNING TWICE AS MANY ACRES AS A YEAR AGO, POTENTIALLY COSTING TAXPAYERS IN THE BILLIONS. Nat pop fire— CONSERVATION IS NOT ENOUGH, WHILE GOVERNOR BROWN HAS CALLED FOR A 20% CUT OF WATER USE IN CALIFORNIA, THE STATE HAS ONLY MANAGED TO GET TO A 5% REDUCTION. ACCORDING TO PROJECTIONS, OVER THE NEXT THREE DECADES CALIFORNIA WILL NEED TO DOUBLE THE CAPACITY OF RESERVOIRS THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS JUST TO REPLACE THE SNOWPACK THAT WILL BE LOST DUE TO CLIMATE “A tremendous amount of will is going to be required to provide the infrastructure we need in this state to provide the water for quality of life an ag production//my understanding of this is we’re going to have to develop more water in the state of California” END IT

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The state is experiencing the worst drought in its history. Find out just how bad the situation is getting and what it means for you.CreditCredit...Stuart Palley/European Pressphoto Agency

“The normal cyclical conditions in California are different now from what they used to be, and that’s not because the long-term annual precipitation changed,” said Noah Diffenbaugh, a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, which just completed a study of the interaction between high temperatures and low precipitation.

“What is really different is there has been a long-term warming in California,” he said. “And we know from looking at the historical record that low precipitation years are much more likely to result in drought conditions if they occur with high temperatures.”

The developments have stirred more concern among suffering farmers. And their options are diminishing: Several said that after last year, there was less groundwater to draw on, while the cost of buying water had become prohibitive.

“I’m going to fallow two acres of my land immediately,” said Geoffrey C. Galloway, who has a citrus grove on his ranch near Porterville, in the Central Valley. “Depending on how the season goes, we may let another four go.”

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A farmer in Fresno County. California farms reported losing $2.2 billion in 2014, as at least 400,000 acres went unplanted.Credit...Monica Almeida/The New York Times

Mr. Galloway, 39, said he counted on income from his grove to support the ranch. He said he was considering whether he would have to give up his land. “I don’t want to lose it,” he said, but “this is the worst it’s been.”

Last year, at least 400,000 acres went unplanted, and farmers reported losses of $2.2 billion, said Mr. Wenger, the head of the farm bureau, who owns a farm in Modesto. “This year we could see easily 50 percent more,” he said. “We are probably going to be looking at well over a million acres.”

Ms. Marcus said the State Water Resources Control Board was moving toward adding new restrictions as well as extending ones that had been due to expire. “The question becomes, ‘What do we need to do to motivate people to do more?’ ” she said.

Pushing for more conservation, the Sacramento City Council voted last month to order faster installation of water meters across the city; the deadline has been moved to 2020 from 2024.

And with paucity and increased prices has come water theft. John A. Coleman, a member of the board of directors of the East Bay Municipal Utility District in Oakland and president of the Association of California Water Agencies, said the East Bay agency wanted to impose serious fines on water thieves for the first time.

“It’s a problem, and it’s becoming more of a problem as the drought intensifies,” he said. “I’m not one who is big on penalties, but this is not right.”

In Santa Barbara, the desalination plant is being taken out of mothballs at a cost of about $40 million.

“Desalination is our absolute last resort,” said Helene Schneider, the mayor. “Unfortunately, given the way the drought is going, we are now at that last resort.”

A version of this article appears in print on  , Section A, Page 13 of the New York edition with the headline: Alarm Rises for a State Withered by Drought. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

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