Skip to main contentSkip to navigationSkip to navigation
Libby's
Morton, Illinois produces 85% of the world’s canned pumpkins. Photograph: Libby's
Morton, Illinois produces 85% of the world’s canned pumpkins. Photograph: Libby's

Pumpkin pie may be missing by Christmas, thanks to climate change

This article is more than 8 years old

Crop yields are down by half in the Illinois town that produces 85% of the world’s canned pumpkin, threatening to deprive Americans of their beloved pie

Crop yields are down by half in the midwestern fields that produce the bulk of pumpkins for pies, threatening to deprive many Americans of the custardy dessert this Christmas – although Thanksgiving will probably be all right.

The town that produces 85% of the world’s canned pumpkins, Morton, Illinois, has experienced increasing rainfall in the past few decades, especially during the spring planting season, something state meteorologists attribute to climate change.

“We’ve just had these more widespread wet conditions from these big rain events,” said James Angel, who has been state climatologist of Illinois for the past 18 years, and has worked with the state water survey for 31 years.

“Right now, the models that were used in the National Climate Assessment are showing us with increased precipitation in winter and spring, and spring is where we’re having the trouble growing here in Illinois.”

For Morton, which produces the $1.79 canned pumpkin puree that most American bakers use as a shortcut to make pie, a wet spring has proven tricky for this year’s harvest. Crop yields of the Dickinson pie pumpkin are down by half this year, after the weather made planting difficult.

The state received almost double its expected rainfall, reaching nearly 2ft of precipitation between May and July. June alone received 11.1in of rain, 7.2in above average.

Over the past few decades, Illinois has experienced a roughly 10% increase in rainfall, Angel said.

And though August and September were warm and dry, the weather pumpkins prefer, it seems it was “too little, too late”, in Angel’s words.

Typically, the oblong Dickinson pumpkins that are packed into Libby’s cans (a proprietary pumpkin breed) are planted in late April and harvested in late August. But when planting is delayed because of a wet spring, or farmers cannot harvest crops because of a wet fall (as happened during a severe pie pumpkin shortage in 2009), the supply chain kinks.

“What happens is when you have Mother Nature not in a very cooperative spirit, you get a crimp in that very beautiful plan,” O’Hearn said.

Professor Mohammad Babadoost, a plant pathologist at the University of Illinois, said that this year’s heavy rains also brought disease to pumpkin crops. “The combination of the diseases just ended up losing some yields and the quality.”

Like most lone weather events, however, tying this year’s pumpkin shortage directly to climate change is difficult. But if heavy spring precipitation in the area continues as expected, it certainly could embattle farmers in the “pumpkin capital of the world”.

The upward trend in precipitation “fits what we expect from changing climate”, said Doug Kluck, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s central region director.

This graph shows the upward trend in precipitation around Morton, Illinois, the "pumpkin capital of the world," over the last century.
This graph shows the upward trend in precipitation around Morton, Illinois, the ‘pumpkin capital of the world’, over the last century. Photograph: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration /National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

For bakers, this year’s shortage means enough canned pumpkin for Thanksgiving, but a tight supply around Christmas, the two American holidays during which the dessert is often served.

And once 2015’s crop is harvested, canned and shipped, which is expected to be in the middle of this year’s baking season, there will not be any extra.

“We completed the harvest yesterday, there just were not as many pumpkins to pick,” said Roz O’Hearn, brand affairs director at Nestlé, the company that owns the Libby’s brand. “When the last of it is shipped in early November – that’s it.”

Libby’s does not have a backlog of supplies, and there will be no more pumpkin to ship until the 2016 harvest, O’Hearn said.

“It’s hard to say this event alone is part of climate change,” said Angel, adding however that “the fact that the model suggests it’s going to continue, I think that’s pretty strong evidence that [climate change is] occurring”.

“If you are a pumpkin pie lover, I would say buy your cans as soon you come to the store,” said Babadoost.

Comments (…)

Sign in or create your Guardian account to join the discussion

Most viewed

Most viewed