For 50 years, California has led the nation in passing environmental standards to protect its beaches, restore wildlife and reduce smog.
But as the final days of this year’s legislative session in Sacramento loom, a controversial bill that would require the state to reduce petroleum use by motor vehicles at least 50 percent by 2030 is causing people in the Capitol and around the state to ask: “Is that even possible?”
Yet lost in the debate are two key facts:
The state will get halfway to that goal even if it does nothing. That’s because of federal rules put into place in 2009 by President Barack Obama to double the gas mileage standards for new U.S. vehicles to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.
Second, the rest of the difference can be made up simply by enforcing — and in some cases strengthening — existing laws passed over the last 15 years to boost electric cars, promote mass transit and reduce the amount of carbon in fuels, according to experts who have done the math.
“It is a huge target. It’s a significant milestone. We need to continue to innovate, but Californians are already on a path to get there,” said Dan Kammen, a UC Berkeley professor of energy.
Oil companies have spent millions on radio and TV ads in recent weeks warning that the measure, SB350, could lead to gas rationing, a ban on minivans and other radical changes.
“This law will limit how much we can drive our own cars,” a man says in one TV ad sponsored by the Western States Petroleum Association, whose members include Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell. “The state will also be collecting and monitoring our personal driving habits and tracking how much gas we use.”
Environmentalists, Gov. Jerry Brown and the bill’s author, state Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León, D-Los Angeles, call the ads cynical scare tactics. They say the law is critical in continuing California’s progress to reduce smog, wean the state from oil and curb greenhouse gas emissions as the planet continues to steadily warm. The bill does not require gas rationing, a ban on certain vehicles or government monitoring of how much people drive.
“There’s a lot of fear-mongering and paranoia going on right now,” said Simon Mui, a scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group in San Francisco. “The oil industry doesn’t like the demand for their product being reduced. Some of the claims are really ludicrous.”
But industry officials and other critics, who include the California Chamber of Commerce and Republican leaders, say the bill is too vague. They note that it hands the California Air Resources Board, a powerful state agency established in 1967 by Gov. Ronald Reagan, the responsibility of figuring out how to halve gasoline and diesel use statewide — which critics say gives the agency too much leeway.
“We’ve been asking: How do you get a 50 percent reduction without some drastic measures being taken that would impact everyday Californians?” said Beth Miller, a spokeswoman for the California Driver’s Alliance, a group funded by the oil industry.
The bill’s lack of specifics has put its chances in doubt, as moderate Democrats, many from the Central Valley, have raised concerns about gas prices and other hardships.
“We need to do a better job explaining how we are going to get there, and we are working on that,” said Anthony Reyes, a spokesman for de León.
He said that de León will offer amendments to clarify the bill early this week, with a final vote possible in the Assembly by Wednesday or Thursday.
Air Resources Board officials say that California could cut gasoline and diesel use in half — from the current 17.4 billion gallons to about 8.7 billion gallons in the next 15 years — almost entirely by relying on existing rules.
“This is not a cosmic shift. It is basically us continuing to do what we are already doing today,” said Ryan McCarthy, a senior scientist at the board.
There are five key ways to hit the goal, according to the agency’s calculations:
• Rely on Obama’s federal gas mileage rules doubling mileage standards 10 years down the road. If California takes no action, the state still will see a 24 percent reduction in petroleum use by 2030 because of that federal law, which is endorsed by the auto industry and on track to meet its target.
• Tighten greenhouse gas emission standards for new cars. In 2002, Gov. Gray Davis signed a measure, authored by then-Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, D-Agoura Hills, requiring the air board to force automakers to reduce those emissions in new vehicles. The law, which survived legal challenges, could be ratcheted down, requiring even more cleaner-burning, fuel efficient engines. Other car standards, such as requiring automakers to sell tires with less rolling resistance to boost gas mileage, could be required under AB32, the state’s landmark 2006 law that required overall California greenhouse emissions to be cut to 1990 levels by 2020, a goal that is so far on target.
• Increase in-fill development and mass transit. In 2008, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a law, SB375, to provide more transportation funding to areas that build housing near light rail, BART and other transit as a way to reduce highway congestion. More incentives for buses, bikes, development in urban areas and construction of high-speed rail would reduce the amount of vehicle miles traveled and cut gasoline use, in future years, the air board says.
• Expand electric and hybrid cars. In 2012, the air board passed a landmark rule requiring that 15 percent of new cars sold in California in 2025 be either a plug-in hybrid, electric or fuel cell vehicle. It also requires a 75 percent reduction in smog-forming emissions from new vehicles. The air board estimates that those regulations will add $1,900 to the price of a new car by 2025 — but will save owners $5,900 in gasoline over the life of the average vehicle. The state could further boost hybrid, electric and plug-in electric cars — like the Nissan Leaf or plug-in Prius — through more tax credits, free parking in public garages and carpool lane privileges, air board studies have found.
• Reduce the carbon in fuels. In 2007, Schwarzenegger approved a “low carbon fuel standard” that requires oil companies to reduce the amount of carbon in gasoline and diesel by 10 percent by 2020, largely through blending more biofuels. That standard could be increased to 15 or 20 percent by 2030, air board scientists say.
“If you take our current policies and assuming some reasonable ratcheting down by 2030, you either get to the goal or get very close,” McCarthy said.
Environmentalists note that the last 15 years of California laws have led to more efficient cars on the roads. Statewide gasoline use peaked 10 years ago and has fallen 10.5 percent since 2006. Automakers offered only 12 car models that could achieve 30 miles per gallon or more in 2008. But by 2013, there were 70.
Meanwhile, California’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 5 percent since 2006 while its GDP has gone up 30 percent, from $1.6 trillion to $2.2 trillion.
“These are changes that have already been happening incrementally,” Mui said. “And other than seeing more hybrid cars and fuel-efficient cars on the road, most people haven’t even noticed.”
Still, opponents don’t trust the air board.
“There has not been a robust debate on where the rubber meets the road,” Miller said. “Details matter. We need to have the details in an open discussion. Right now this bill is down to the wire.”
Paul Rogers covers resources and environmental issues. Contact him at 408-920-5045. Follow him at Twitter.com/PaulRogersSJMN
