Tomorrow is going to be an exciting day because the Commerce Department will announce just how lousy it thinks the US economy performed during the first three months of 2015.
Why is that exciting? Because a lot of well-paid somebodies are going to be very wrong on their predictions.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has already calculated that the first-quarter GDP will be 0.1 percent on an annualized basis. Put in plain English, this means that the economy grew a barely noticeable 0.025 percent during 2015’s first three months.
Let me paint you a picture another way: If someone hadn’t purchased two packs of bubble gum in Peoria, the GDP might have been negative.
The excitement will come if Commerce manages to come up with a number that’s substantially different than that of the Atlanta Fed, which just started keeping regular tabs on GDP.
Atlanta’s calculation is called NowGDP.
Will Commerce tinker with how inflation is recorded to boost its GDP calculation? And how much deviation from Atlanta’s number will be tolerated before people completely lose respect for Commerce, which is headed by a political appointee? Will Commerce report a higher number just to make Wall Street happy?
There’s a second level of GDP intrigue because most Wall Street economists think the US expanded at a rate better than the Atlanta Fed’s number.
Nobody believes the first quarter was great. In fact, the word “poor” has already been used by Fed officials.
But, still, the median forecast on Wall Street predicts the first quarter grew at a 2.1 percent annualized rate. Wells Fargo is at the bottom of those forecasts with a prediction of 1.1 percent annualized growth.
So, the Atlanta Fed’s 0.1 percent GDP prediction is the leader in the clubhouse against everyone else’s more rosy outlook.
The Census Bureau still hasn’t obeyed the law by complying with my Freedom of Information requests despite many, many phone calls last week from my readers to the bureau’s director.
So here’s the number again — (301) 763-2135.
When you get a moment, please call Director John Thompson and tell him John Crudele and The Post are still waiting to hear from him. Tell your friends to call as well. And your kids.
And don’t be afraid to call a number of times — as they say, your call is important to them.
Two months ago I wrote that there was a federal investigation of Bronx politicians, including lawmaker Carl Heastie, who became Assembly speaker in Albany after Sheldon Silver was banished from the post for wrongdoing.
The New York Times recently got around to the story with its own front-page version. The Times thinks Heastie is in trouble for some embezzlement his mother did 16 years ago and that he didn’t remedy.
Maybe so. But when I was looking into this — before anyone else had a clue — I was told investigators had been tipped about more recent and allegedly more serious crimes than a possible embezzlement by his mom.
If another Assembly speaker gets bounced this close to Silver’s ouster, it would obviously be extremely embarrassing for New York politics — if Albany is able to be embarrassed.
The Tribeca Film Festival ended this weekend and if you didn’t get there, well, I hope you had a very good excuse because it was lots of fun. I went and saw a bunch of films because that’s what you do at film festivals.
And I know all of you have been anxiously waiting for this moment. I am now going to give reviews in my very own Yep-to-Nope scale.
“Slow West”: (3 Yeps) Funny story by a New Zealand director about the American West and foolish love that didn’t make me sleep.
“In Transit”: (1 Yep) Somebody interviews a lot of people on a cross-country train ride. See it, but you’d be better off speaking with people the next time you are on the D train.
“Shut Up and Drive”: (1 Yep) Two misfit girls go on a road trip and end up making a hot guy they love look foolish. What else is new?
“Drunk Stoned Brilliant Dead ”: (2 Yeps) The history of National Lampoon. Very funny. Made me wish I had read the magazine at least once.
“Dixieland ”: (1 Yep) Singer Faith Hill plays a trailer-park mom whose son is in trouble with the law. He’s doing OK until he falls in love, which is what usually happens in life. Too bad Faith doesn’t sing.
“The Adderall Diaries”: (2 Yeps) Glad actor James Franco finally got a part. He’s addicted. He’s a screwed-up writer who can’t write anymore. Tense. The father, played by Ed Harris, makes me not want to get old.
“Bleeding Heart”: (1 Yep) I like Jessica Biel. That’s it.
Now you know why I don’t do movie reviews for a living.
But this much I can say as an authority: The people who conceived and put the Tribeca Film Festival together should be given a shot at revitalizing Atlantic City. The festival came about during the devastation of 9/11. AC’s problems shouldn’t be nearly as hard to solve.