Get Indexology® Blog updates via email.

In This List

Two More Disruptive Ideas for Advisors

Weaker June CPI Moves Bond Prices Higher

Did Apple Weigh Down Your ETF?

Asia Fixed Income: Record Supply of Chinese Muni Bonds

Navigating Rising Rates: Municipal Bond Ladders

Two More Disruptive Ideas for Advisors

Contributor Image
Adam Butler

CEO

ReSolve Asset Management

My last post summarized some of our notes from the recent S&P DJI ETF Masterclass conference in Toronto, on the topic “ETFs as a Catalyst for Canadian Advisory Growth”. We discussed some disruptive innovations that are changing the fabric of wealth management, and how some of Canada’s leading wealth management thought leaders propose to address them. This post will continue on the same theme, with a discussion of two more disruptive challenges on the horizon.

1. Relatively new robo-advisor and hybrid robo-human platforms are rapidly gaining traction in the U.S., and several smart Canadian offerings are popping up north of the border. The disciplined, diversified investment portfolios offered by these platforms, which automatically rebalance and alter portfolio composition in response to clients’ life phases, are already causing some clients to question the role of their traditional advisor. Someone mentioned the existence of ETFs that provide exposure to a globally diversified portfolio with zero management fee.  At the same time, it was widely recognized by panelists and thoughtful advisors in the audience that robo-solutions lack some important ‘soft’ qualities, which represent substantial benefits to clients. Of course, advisors can help clients develop comprehensive estate and financial plans, and perhaps better address client objectives that do not map directly to the ‘mean-variance plane’. In addition, advisors can help keep clients focused on the long-term during periods when clients are tempted to leap to a ‘faster horse’ during bull markets, or abandon their plan altogether at the depths of bear markets. Mark Yamada, President and Chief Executive Officer of PUR Investing, felt strongly that advisors must adapt to survive. In particular, advisors should think hard about their value proposition in an environment where clients are reluctant to pay fees for strategic asset allocation, manager selection, or rebalancing. He suggested advisors must decide whether they can add value with more dynamic asset allocation approaches, or else differentiate with highly personalized financial and estate planning services.

2. Michael Jones, Chief Investment Officer for RiverFront Investment Group in Richmond Virginia, closed the event with a compelling presentation about the growing importance of external ETF solutions for advisors who want to adapt to a rapidly changing wealth management landscape. The Registered Investment Advisor community in the U.S., analogous to Canadian independent Portfolio Managers, have embraced ETF mandates with a voracious appetite over the past five years. This segment has been one of the fastest growing channels in asset management, and several managed ETF mandates boast AUM in the tens of billions. As investors wake up to an increasingly complex, global risk environment with few easy solutions, we don’t expect this trend to reverse any time soon.

At root, the S&P DJI event offered advisors a clear mandate: success in the future must be founded on a model that puts clients first and adds services. Advisors who can learn to use all the new tools at their disposal to offer differentiated value have the opportunity to take a much larger share of the pie.

The posts on this blog are opinions, not advice. Please read our Disclaimers.

Weaker June CPI Moves Bond Prices Higher

Contributor Image
Kevin Horan

Former Director, Fixed Income Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices

The yield-to-worst of the S&P/BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Index closed out the week of July 17, 2015, at 2.35%, which was 6 bps lower than the previous Friday’s 2.40% close. The 2.40% close on Friday, July 10, 2015, came in after a quick two-day increase, as the yield-to-worst jumped 10 bps on Thursday, July 9, 2015, and another 10 bps on that Friday. The jump up in yield was due the unwinding of safety trades after the Chinese stock market recouped losses, along with optimism about a Greek bailout.

Friday, July 17, 2015, saw prices increase, pushing yields lower. Slow growth in inflation, as evidenced by the June CPI number, which was 0.3% versus 0.4% in May, moved yields down. The Federal Reserve’s continued data-dependent approach to a possible rate increase has investors questioning the timing of any action, given that a rate increase is dependent on the economy meeting the Fed’s economic growth projections. The S&P/BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Index has returned 0.19% MTD and has lost 0.09% YTD as of Friday, July 17, 2015.

As of the same date, the S&P 500® Bond Index has been close to flat for the month, having returned -0.01% and -0.65% YTD. The index was launched on July 8, 2015, at which point it returned 0.73% MTD. The dramatic selling in bonds that occurred on July 9-10, 2015, took the return down to as low as -0.49% MTD before the index worked its way back up to be almost flat to close the week.

The investment-grade segment of the S&P 500 Bond Index (the S&P 500 Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index) experienced the same dip and recovery, as its returns went from 0.79% MTD on July 8, 2015, to -0.55% MTD on July 13, 2015. The index then recovered to -0.04% MTD on July 17, 2015, to close the week. Year-to-date, this index has returned -0.86% as of July 17, 2015.

The S&P 500 High Yield Corporate Bond Index, a subindex of the S&P 500 Bond Index, has 440 issues and a yield-to-worst of 4.98% as of July 17, 2015. The S&P 500 High Yield Corporate Bond Index has returned 0.28% MTD and 1.64% YTD as of the same date. Although it has not returned 3.41% YTD like the much broader S&P U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Index, the S&P 500 High Yield Corporate Bond Index is beating the broader index’s 0.08% MTD as of July 17, 2015.
S&P 500 Bond Index

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of July 17, 2015. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

The posts on this blog are opinions, not advice. Please read our Disclaimers.

Did Apple Weigh Down Your ETF?

Contributor Image
Todd Rosenbluth

Director of ETF and Mutual Fund Research

S&P Capital IQ Equity Research

Despite posting second quarter 44% earnings growth, Apple declined 4.3% on Wednesday July 22. According to S&P Capital IQ, 33% sales growth was more modest than expected and the company’s third-quarter revenue guidance was below Capital IQ consensus. Further, iPhone and iPad shipments were weaker than expected. As the largest company in the U.S., with a market cap of approximately $720 billion, Apple was a recent top-10 holding in 98 largely index based ETFs.

At the end of June 2015, Apple was a 4% weighting in the S&P 500 Index, nearly equal the size of Microsoft and Exxon Mobil, the two next largest constituents.

But Apple’s weighting was nearly five times as large in the market-cap weighted S&P 500 Information Technology Index and other leading technology indices that are tracked by some ETFs. Not surprisingly, those indices were dragged lower by Apple on Wednesday.

For investors that want to track more diversified technology index, an equal-weighted approach is worthy of consideration. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology Index is one of them. It consists of all the technology stocks in the S&P 500 in largely equal proportion regardless of market cap and rebalances quarterly. This means that Electronic Arts was recently a larger position at 1.8% than Apple 1.6%, despite having a market cap of just $23 billion or less than 5% of Apple.

Of course equal weighting approaches work both ways, and investors in such ETFs can miss out on gains achieved by some of the largest companies. For example, the two Google share classes (GOOG) and (GOOG) comprised 10% of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector.

Google jumped sharply last week after reporting stronger the expected results. Second quarter non-GAAP EPS was $6.99, up 15% from a year earlier and $0.31 above the S&P Capital IQ estimate. In contrast, Google is a similarly small 2% weighting in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology index.

A version of this article originally was published on MarketScope Advisor.

Please follow me @ToddSPCAPIQ to keep up with the latest ETF Trends.

—————————————————————————————————–

S&P Capital IQ operates independently from S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The views and opinions of any contributor not an employee of S&P Dow Jones Indices are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of S&P Dow Jones Indices or any of its affiliates.  Information from third party contributors is presented as provided and has not been edited.  S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and its affiliates make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability of such information, including any products and services described herein, for any purpose.

The posts on this blog are opinions, not advice. Please read our Disclaimers.

Asia Fixed Income: Record Supply of Chinese Muni Bonds

Contributor Image
Michele Leung

Former Director, Fixed Income Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices

The Chinese Ministry of Finance (MoF) recently rolled out another muni replacement program of legacy local government debt, as the previous muni replacement quota of RMB 1 trillion only addresses about half of the local government debt that is due to expire in 2015. With the robust expansion plan, it is expected that the total supply of muni bonds will reach over RMB 2.77 trillion this year1.

In fact, since Jiangsu’s debut issuance on May 18, 2015, the municipal bond market that is tracked by the S&P China Provincial Bond Index has expanded rapidly. In the June 2015 index rebalancing, the total number of muni bonds surged from 47 to 138, while the total par amount increased four times to CNY 847 billion (see Exhibit 1).

According to the S&P China Provincial Bond Index, the Jiangsu Province has the highest outstanding debt, at CNY 129 trillion, and it represents 15% of the index exposure, followed by the Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces (see Exhibit 2 for the provincial breakdown).

Of note, the new Chinese muni bonds were priced tight at issuance and they continue to trade at tight credit spreads above the sovereign bond yields. As of July 21, 2015, the yield-to-worst of the S&P China Provincial Bond Index was 3.49% (with a modified duration of 5.19), whereas the yield-to-worst of the S&P China Sovereign Bond Index was 3.15% (with a modified duration of 5.60).

Exhibit 1: Market Value tracked by the S&P China Provincial Bond Index

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of July 21, 2015. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosures at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of July 21, 2015. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosures at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance.

Exhibit 2: Total Par Amount by Provincial Breakdown

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of July 21, 2015. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of July 21, 2015. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

 

1 Source: HBSC Global Research

The posts on this blog are opinions, not advice. Please read our Disclaimers.

Navigating Rising Rates: Municipal Bond Ladders

Contributor Image
Matt Tucker

Head of iShares Americas Fixed Income Strategy

BlackRock

With rising rates potentially on the horizon, protecting the value of bond portfolios is top of mind for many investors. Holding bonds to maturity via a bond ladder can be considered a way to navigate these volatile investing waters.

Why Ladder?
In a typical ladder, an investor would invest an equal amount of money into a series of bonds, with each bond maturing in a different year.  When one bond matures, the proceeds can be used to purchase a new long maturity bond, or can be used for some other purpose. As each bond approaches maturity the duration, or interest rate sensitivity, of the bond portfolio declines. When a bond matures and a new longer maturity bond is purchased, the duration lengthens again. Investors effectively lock in yields on bonds when they purchase them, and take some of the guesswork out of bond investing. Also, a ladder gives an investor the flexibility of taking the proceeds from maturing bonds and using them for some other purpose.

Performance Comparison
How has building a bond ladder compared to investing in a short-term municipal bond strategy?

Let’s say an investor was considering three options: creating a five-year ladder, creating a seven-year ladder, or investing in a short-term municipal bond fund. For each of these investment options the investor is considering only non-callable, investment grade bonds. The performance of S&P AMT-Free Municipal indices can be used to measure how different segments of the muni market have performed over time; through them we can measure the historical performance of the three options. For our performance period we will look at September 2011 to June 2015. The S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series Indices include bonds that mature in each calendar year of the index name, and are available in maturities ranging from 2012 to 2023. A five-year ladder can be constructed using Municipal Series Indices that mature between 2012 and 2019. A seven-year ladder can be constructed using Municipal Series Indices that mature between 2012 and 2021. This analysis assumes that the investor is rolling the proceeds of each maturing index into a new longest rung on the ladder.

Capture

The performance of these ladder portfolios can be compared to the S&P Short-Term National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index, which holds bonds from 0-5 years to maturity and rebalances monthly. The Short-Term index can be a good proxy for a short-term muni strategy that does not mature like a ladder.  The index is market cap weighted, and does not hold an equal weighted amount in each maturity year like the laddered solutions do.

Capture

The duration of the laddered strategies rolls down and then increases when an index matures and the proceeds are reinvested in the next rung. This is in contrast to the Short-Term index whose duration is more stable through time.

Capture

The performance of the 5-year ladder and the short-term index were similar. Note that the 5-year ladder had slightly higher return and volatility due to having an average duration that was slightly higher. Overall the duration differences between the three different portfolios was the largest driver of their performance differences.

Capture

Laddering a bond portfolio can provide investors with the flexibility to navigate the next round of rate hikes, while still helping meet their investment objectives. A laddering strategy can also provide more control over the portfolio, as an investor has an opportunity each year to reduce the size of the investor’s bond investment.  A short-term municipal bond strategy has provided a similar risk and return experience to the ladder options, and might be appropriate if the investor does not want to manage the maintenance of a ladder, or does not need the option of withdrawing proceeds from the investment on a regular basis.

—————————————————————————————————————-

The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell, or an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective.
Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments. There may be less information on the financial condition of municipal issuers than for public corporations. The market for municipal bonds may be less liquid than for taxable bonds. Some investors may be subject to federal or state income taxes or the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Capital gains distributions, if any, are taxable.
iSHARES and BLACKROCK are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. iS-16101-0715

 

The posts on this blog are opinions, not advice. Please read our Disclaimers.