Every five years or so, Congress passes a massive farm bill to fund the federal government’s agricultural programs. For decades, it included guaranteed subsidies to farmers—-payouts worth $4.5 billion a year under the 2008 bill. But no more. With U.S. farm profits at a record $129 billion, in 2014 lawmakers eliminated the subsidies. Instead, the nation's 1.7 million farmers must choose between two new programs intended to protect them against unexpected losses. One would insure their income in bad harvest years. The other would compensate them if crop prices fell. It's a high-stakes decision that requires them to predict whether they're at greater risk from acts of God or acts of man. Illinois farmer J. Gordon Bidner says he needed "two crystal balls" to figure it out.